Gear Oil Market Size, Share, Industry, Forecast and outlook (2024-2031)

Gear Oil Market is segmented By Base Oil (Synthetic, Semi-synthetic, Bio-based), By End-User (Power Generation, Metal Production, Mining, Construction, Oil & Gas, Automotive, Others), and By Region (North America, Latin America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Middle East, and Africa) – Share, Size, Outlook, and Opportunity Analysis, 2024-2031

Report Overview

The Global Gear Oil Market size was worth US$ 14.01 million in 2023 and is estimated to reach US$ 16.98 million by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 2.43% during the forecast period (2024-2031). 

Gear oil is a lubricant used in gears (gearboxes) to reduce friction and wear on the gear tooth surfaces, remove heat generated by the operating gear and protect the gear parts from corrosion. While gear oil is most commonly found in automotive transmissions, it is designed to be utilized almost anyplace a gearbox can be found. Because gearboxes' various materials and circumstances can vary quite a bit, they need a wide variety of qualities. 

As gears generate a lot of heat and friction as they operate against each other, oil is almost always required to prevent abrasive damage between the gears, eventually leading to system failure. The bulk of gear oils on the market are designed for automobiles, specifically manual gearboxes. They are commonly referred to as "universal" gear oils and while they can be utilized in industrial processes, they frequently contain additives that might harm machines. On the other hand, Dedicated gear oils are designed exclusively for industrial processes and include a unique combination of additives and protective chemicals.

Market Scope

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Market Dynamics

Ongoing improvements in synthetic technology over mineral-based gear oil are likely to propel the industry even further. Automobile demand has risen dramatically recently, particularly in Asia-Pacific and Latin America's developing countries. The factors are expected to impact the gear oil industry positively. 

Rising demand for high-performance vehicles

Gear oil is a critical component of a car since it acts as the first line of defense in keeping the transmission running smoothly. To improve the performance of their vehicles by making the engine operate cleaner and more effectively, car owners should replace gear oil at regular intervals or at least at specified intervals.

Gear oil improves transmission system performance, reduces wear and tear and improves fuel efficiency. Vehicle owners are strongly interested in upgrading their vehicles with frequent oil changes to experience better driving and save money on gas. It is expected to propel the global gear oil market forward throughout the forecast period.

Growing automotive industry

The market for automobile gear oil is inextricably linked to vehicle sales. The global automotive industry has had sufficient growth despite the recent economic uncertainty. Emerging economies are predicted to produce more automobiles compared to industrialized economies. The sector's expansion is anticipated to be primarily fueled by rising demand for light, passenger and heavy-duty commercial motor vehicles.

Increasing automobile sales and production is expected to propel the global automotive gear oil market forward over the forecast period. It can be related to global economic stability as well as increased urbanization. The on-road fleet is predicted to grow at a modest CAGR over the forecast period, giving borderline chances for the automotive gear oil market to grow.

High costs and rising use of automatic transmission systems

Gear oils have several disadvantages, including high cost and a lack of solubility. They have low solubility, meaning they don't dissolve additives or mineral counterparts. In addition, varnish-forming breakdown byproducts are difficult to suspend in synthetic gear oils. The increased usage of automatic transmission systems is stifling the growth of manual transmission systems, which is predicted to hamper the growth of the gear oil industry because gear oils lack the additives needed for automated transmissions to work properly.

Market Segment Analysis

By end-user, the gear oil market is segmented into power generation, metal production, mining, construction, oil & gas, automotive and others.

Power generation to hold the lions’ share

Wind energy generation is developing rapidly worldwide, with the installed capacity of wind turbines increasing every year. Reduced prices in the offshore industry have contributed to the expansion of the wind power generation market by bringing in investments in the offshore industries in Europe, North America and Asia-Pacific, which is likely to enhance gear oil demand over the forecast period.

In wind turbines, gear oils are used to lubricate the primary gearbox and auxiliary gear motor components. It is due to the high temperatures, bearing wear, corrosion & oxidation and the heavy loads involved in the power generation process. Due to the performance additives utilized during synthetic oils, there is a growing demand for synthetic gear oils in wind turbines owing to their superior qualities over their mineral-based counterparts.

Market Geographical Share

A huge industrial base in Asia-Pacific

The gear oil market in Asia-Pacific is predicted to be the largest. The need for gear oils is driven by the region's important developing countries, such as China, India and ASEAN. Electricity usage has increased throughout time due to construction and population growth. By 2022, India is expected to draw significant investment in the power production sector with thermal, hydro, nuclear and renewables projects.

The region is experiencing strong growth in these key sectors. For instance, the World Steel Association reports that China leads the world in crude steel production. China produced 1 064.8 Million Tons of crude steel in 2020, an increase of roughly 7 percent from 2019. Airbus and Tata Airplanes joined together in September 2021 to manufacture aircraft in India. By the end of 2022, construction on the new facility will start and finish by the end of 2023.

The expansion of the country's chemical industry is facilitated by the construction of new chemical industry factories in South Korea. For instance, work on the Posco lithium hydroxide factory in South Korea began in 2021. The building of this plant will be finished by the end of 2023. The development of a wind farm near Melbourne, Australia, received US$2.25 billion in funding from the Australian government in December 2021. A new coal mine was being built in Australia in 2019. In the upcoming years, the variables will increase demand for gear oil.

Market Competitive Landscape 

Major global gear oil market companies include Royal Dutch Shell Plc., ExxonMobil Corporation, BP PLC, Chevron Corporation, Total S.A., PetroChina Company Limited, Sinopec Limited, Fuchs Petrolub SE, Lukoil and Idemitsu Kosan Co., Ltd.

COVID-19 Impact Analysis

The COVID-19 pandemic outbreak has considerably impacted the global market for gear oil. The COVID-19 epidemic slowed economic growth in almost all major nations, changing consumer spending habits. The economic effects of COVID-19, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), led to a drop in GDP growth in several nations, including UK, Germany, Brazil, Japan, U.S., Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and more. Due to the government's announcement of stringent measures to stop the coronavirus, regional economic activity and GDP decreased, raising public worry and creating financial difficulty for the gear oil business. 

Due to various regions' lack of finance, several wind energy projects were still unfinished. The wind energy sector also faced challenges such as supply chain risks, shortages of subcontractors and materials and contract dismissals to reduce costs, which restrained the growth of the gear oil market during Covid-19-related lockdown restrictions. For instance, in 2020, work on wind projects was put on hold in Michigan, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania. 

Russia-Ukraine War Impact

As the world's second-largest oil producer and natural gas exporter, Russia's war with Ukraine has had a significant influence on the energy market. The war and the subsequent chain of events have had a negative influence on the world economy via a variety of avenues, including the commodity market, stock market and trade. Notably, the energy sector has been the hardest damaged. 

According to data released by the American Oil and Gas Journal, global oil production in 2021 was 4.423 billion tons, with Russia accounting for 534 million tons or 12% of total global oil production, making it the world's second-largest oil producer after U.S. The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war and the accompanying U.S. energy sanctions imposed on Russia have resulted in a considerable increase in crude oil prices. On March 7, 2022, the WTI crude oil futures price reached US$ 133.460/barrel, while the Brent crude oil futures price hit US$ 139.130/barrel, the highest since July 2008.

By Base Oil

• Synthetic
• Semi-synthetic
• Bio-based

By End-user

• Power Generation
• Metal Production
• Mining
• Construction
• Oil & Gas
• Automotive
• Others

By Region

• North America
  • U.S.
  • Canada
  • Mexico
• Europe
  • Germany
  • UK
  • France
  • Italy
  • Spain
  • Rest of Europe
• South America
  • Brazil
  • Argentina
  • Rest of South America
• Asia-Pacific
  • China
  • India
  • Japan
  • Australia
  • Rest of Asia-Pacific
• Middle East and Africa

Key Developments

• In July 2022, Shell USA, Inc. and Shell Midstream Partners, L.P. announced to carry out their merger agreement. Shell USA intends to buy all common units that reflect limited partner interests in SHLX. The acquisition is scheduled to be completed by the fourth quarter of 2022.
• Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Andeavor Logistics, announced a formal merger agreement under which the former will pay US$ 23 billion to buy the latter. The purchase is planned to build a diverse midstream company while also increasing Marathon Petroleum's presence in the Marcellus shale and Permian basins. This will also allow the corporation to direct funding toward high-growth projects.

Why Purchase the Report?

• Visualize the composition of the gear oil market segmentation by base oil, end-user and region, highlighting the critical commercial assets and players.
• Identify commercial opportunities in the gear oil market by analyzing trends and co-development deals. 
• Excel data sheet with thousands of gear oil market-level 4/5 segmentation points.
• Pdf report with the most relevant analysis cogently put together after exhaustive qualitative interviews and in-depth market study. 
• Product mapping in excel for the key product of all major market players

The global gear oil market report would provide access to an approx. 53 market data tables, 46 figures and 180 pages. 

Target Audience 2024

• Gear Oil Service Providers/ Buyers
• Industry Investors/Investment Bankers
• Education & Research Institutes
• Emerging Companies
• Gear Oil Manufacturers