Aviation Fuel Market Size, Share, Industry, Forecast and outlook (2024-2031)

Global Aviation Fuel Market is segmented By Fuel (Conventional Fuel, Sustainable Fuel) By Aircraft (Commercial Aircraft, Private Aircraft, Military Aircraft) and By Region (North America, Europe, South America, Asia Pacific, Middle East, and Africa) – Share, Size, Outlook, and Opportunity Analysis, 2024-2031

Aviation Fuel Market Size

Global Aviation Fuel Market reached US$ 211.5 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach US$ 599.1 million by 2031, growing with a CAGR of 13.9% during the forecast period 2024-2031.

The increasing demand for aviation fuel globally is fueled by rising air travel rates and the ongoing development of more efficient aircraft. Over the period from 2010 to 2019, the International Energy Agency observed a steady annual improvement of 1.8% in fuel efficiency per revenue ton-kilometer traveled, largely attributed to advancements in aircraft and engine technologies.

In 2022, significant growth was witnessed in the aviation fuel market, particularly in North America, notably U.S. To accelerate the production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), U.S. introduced key measures such as tax credits and a competitive grant program under the Inflation Reduction Act, with US$ 3.3 billion allocated for this purpose. The objective is to achieve a production milestone of 3 billion gallons of SAF by 2031. 

Additionally, U.S. Department of Transportation, FAA, Boeing and APEC economies have joined forces to develop SAF and increase its availability for regional airlines. Moreover, on September 7, 2023, Lummus Technology announced the commercial availability of its ethanol to SAF process technology, offering a scalable solution to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the aviation industry.

Aviation Fuel Market Summary

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Aviation Fuel Market Trends

Increased Aviation Activity

The surge in aviation activity globally, fueled by the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and the expansion of aviation infrastructure, is a key driver for the aviation fuel market. The growing middle-class population, coupled with rising disposable incomes due to economic and demographic expansion, is stimulating airline activity, leading to increased demand for flights. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), with global economic growth projected at 3% annually by 2035, the aviation sector is expected to witness a 6% average annual increase in air traffic, consequently driving up the consumption of aviation fuel.

Moreover, the rise of low-cost airlines offering competitive prices on popular routes has further intensified air traffic, particularly in regions like Europe. The carriers command a significant portion of world traffic and have prompted other airlines to lower ticket prices to stay competitive, thereby fueling the demand for air travel and, consequently, aviation fuel consumption.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel

The increasing demand for Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) is a significant driver for the aviation fuel market, spurred by advancements in technology and supportive policies. While SAF currently represents a small fraction of aviation fuels consumed, ongoing efforts by manufacturers and operators to test flights fueled entirely by SAF are underway, with potential integration into existing infrastructure, engines and aircraft.

For instance, to align with the Net Zero Scenario, projections suggest a substantial growth in SAF use in aviation, reaching 10% by 2031 through investments in production capacity and supportive policies such as fuel taxes and low-carbon fuel standards. Furthermore, the commercial adoption of SAF is bolstered by policies incentivizing SAF production in countries like U.S. and UK, alongside the European Union's proposed ReFuelEU regulation.

Carbon Emission Footprint

The carbon emissions associated with conventional aviation fuel pose a significant restraint on market growth. As a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, the aviation industry faces increasing scrutiny and pressure to reduce its carbon footprint. Despite efforts to mitigate emissions, post-COVID-19 air travel demand recovery in 2022 led to a surge in emissions globally.

Aviation emissions nearly reached 80% of their pre-pandemic levels in 2019, totaling close to 800 Mt CO2 in 2022. The rapid growth of CO2 emissions from aviation presents a considerable challenge in addressing climate change concerns. Projections suggest that emissions will continue to rise rapidly and may surpass 2019 levels by around 2025, further exacerbating environmental concerns and restraining the growth of conventional aviation fuel.

Aviation Fuel Market Segment Analysis

The global aviation fuel market is segmented based on fuel, aircraft and region.

Sustainable Fuel Segment is Estimated to grow at Highest CAGR over the Forecast Period. 

Based on the Fuel the aircraft fuel market is segmented into Conventional Fuel and Sustainable Fuel. Sustainable Fuel is expected to grow at 15.8% CAGR over the forecast period 2024-2031 by emerhhing as a beacon of hope in aviation's quest for environmental responsibility. The aviation industry is witnessing unprecedented growth, with flight volumes in 2023 anticipated to surpass the peak levels recorded in 2019. However, this surge in air travel raises concerns about its contribution to global carbon emissions, which already stand at 2-3%. As the industry continues to expand, so too will its carbon footprint unless proactive measures are taken.

In response to this challenge, considerable efforts are being directed towards the development and utilization of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs). These fuels, derived from sources like algae, food crops, food waste, and synthetic options such as green hydrogen or synthetic kerosene, offer a promising avenue for reducing emissions throughout their lifecycle. Despite emitting carbon equivalent to fossil fuels when burned in flight, SAFs demonstrate significant potential for emission reduction owing to their considerably greener lifecycle. However, challenges such as environmental risks, high production costs, and limited supply currently constrain their widespread adoption.

The primary objective now is to scale up SAF production while mitigating environmental risks, ensuring that these fuels truly embody sustainability. While SAFs alone may not completely mitigate aviation's climate impacts, they are deemed a crucial component in the journey towards carbon neutrality. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) could contribute approximately 65% of the emissions reduction required for aviation to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050. Achieving this ambitious goal demands a substantial increase in SAF production to meet escalating demand. The 2030s are anticipated to witness a significant acceleration in SAF production, driven by global policy support, improved competitiveness.

Aviation Fuel Market Geographical Share

Asia-Pacific's Rising Aviation Sector

Asia-Pacific commands a significant market share in the aviation fuel industry, propelled by the burgeoning growth of aviation activities and initiatives promoting the adoption of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Governments across the region are actively endorsing SAF usage to curb greenhouse gas emissions, with Japan proposing legislation mandating a 10% share of SAF in aviation fuel by 2031 and China's Civil Aviation Administration striving to elevate SAF usage while reducing emissions intensity.

Moreover, the region's robust presence in the aviation fuel market is bolstered by increasing domestic fuel demand, particularly as post-COVID-19 travel rebounds. As the aviation industry progresses towards full recovery, the demand for jet fuel is poised to surge, thereby enhancing margins for Asian refiners and driving up crude demand, exerting a significant influence on global prices.

Aviation Fuel Companies

The major global players include Atmosfair, Shell Aviation, World Energy, Neste, Gevo Inc, Honeywell International, Johnson Matthey, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, BP plc.

COVID-19 Impact Analysis

COVID-19 pandemic made a profound impact on the aviation fuel market, as air travel drastically reduced due to travel restrictions, lockdowns and reduced passenger demand. The sharp decline in air travel led to a surplus of aviation fuel supply, which, in turn, resulted in a large drop in fuel prices in 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. As airlines cut back on flights, airports and fixed-base operators (FBOs) faced a decrease in airport fuel volume, impacting their revenue.

Amidst the pandemic challenges, there was growing interest in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Some airlines, airports and maintenance stakeholders explored the use of SAF as they evaluated ways to incorporate sustainability into their operations and reduce their carbon emissions. Despite the pandemic's short-term disruptions, the aviation fuel sector recovered in 2022 with ease in travel restrictions internationally.

Russia-Ukraine War Impact 

Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the resulting airspace restrictions have created significant challenges for the global aviation fuel industry. The closure of Russian airspace has forced hundreds of flights to take alternative routes, leading to increased operating costs due to higher fuel consumption. Beyond these difficulties, aviation fuel prices, represented by Aviation Turbine Fuel, have also risen due to soaring crude oil prices.

The crisis has also caused a surge in jet fuel prices, which make up a substantial portion of airlines' operating expenses. The timing of these price increases was unfavorable for the industry, as it occurred just as airlines were starting to recover from the pandemic and still facing significant losses. After one year of invasion, Jet fuel prices in Europe rose by about one-third compared to 2019, further straining airlines' financial situation.

Key Developments

• In May 2023, Honeywell International Inc. unveiled a groundbreaking technology that enables the production of lower-carbon aviation fuel. The innovative process involves utilizing green hydrogen and carbon to create the fuel, marking a significant step towards reducing carbon emissions in the aviation industry.
• In July 2023, Gevo, Inc. (based in Inglewood, Colorado) and McDermott International Inc. (headquartered in Houston) announced a collaboration through a master services agreement (MSA). Under this agreement, McDermott will be responsible for providing front-end engineering and early planning services to support Gevo's initiative in developing multiple sustainable aviation fuel facilities in North America.
• In July 2023, Forge Hydrocarbons, a company that specializes in renewable fuels and chemicals and originates from University of Alberta, collaborate with Edmonton International Airport (YEG) to pursue the establishment of a new bio jet fuel production facility in the Edmonton region.

Why Purchase the Report?

• To visualize the global aviation fuel market segmentation based on fuel, aircraft and region as well as understand key commercial assets and players.
• Identify commercial opportunities by analyzing trends and co-development. 
• Excel data sheet with numerous data points of aviation fuel market-level with all segments.
• PDF report consists of a comprehensive analysis after exhaustive qualitative interviews and an in-depth study.
• Product mapping available as Excel consisting of key products of all the major players.

The global aviation fuel market report would provide approximately 53 tables, 46 figures and 181 Pages.

Target Audience 2024

• Manufacturers/ Buyers
• Industry Investors/Investment Bankers
• Research Professionals
• Emerging Companies